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The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised its key policy rate from 15% to 15.5% on Thursday, July 30, citing persistent inflationary pressure and a faster-than-expected rise in consumer prices.
“The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine has decided to increase the key policy rate to 15.5% in response to sustained underlying inflationary pressure and a more significant acceleration of headline inflation toward the end of the year,” the central bank said in a statement.
According to the NBU, the move is aimed at maintaining the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated assets, preserving stability in the foreign exchange market and keeping inflation under control. The regulator reiterated its goal of returning inflation to its 5% target by 2027.
The central bank said overall inflation resumed its upward trend in July and revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward. While the previous projection published in April expected inflation to reach 9.4% by the end of the year, the updated forecast now stands at 10%.
Inflation in Ukraine has been rising since the beginning of 2026, driven in part by higher fuel prices following the global increase in oil prices. Energy markets were affected by the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, as well as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier, Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers approved the Budget Declaration for 2027–2029, which outlines a gradual increase in social standards as one of its key priorities. The government forecasts real GDP growth of 4.5% in 2027, 5.3% in 2028 and 6.7% in 2029. Average monthly wages are projected to increase from UAH 35,010 to UAH 44,083, while inflation is expected to slow from 8.9% to 5.1% over the same period.
