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Limiting global warming to 1.5°C — and preventing catastrophic consequences for humanity — is still achievable, but only if global emissions fall sharply within the next few years.
New UN estimates warn that, under current climate policies, the planet is on track for 2.8°C of warming, pushing the world toward a “climate collapse” with disastrous effects. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said exceeding the 1.5°C threshold is now “inevitable,” and the window to secure a “livable future” is rapidly closing, reports the Financial Times.
The assessment, outlining key projections and global risks, was released ahead of climate talks in Brazil — a summit the U.S. will not attend and many world leaders are expected to skip. Greenhouse-gas emissions rose 2.3% last year, largely due to deforestation and increased fuel combustion. The EU remains the only major region where emissions declined.
Escalation of Extreme Weather
Heatwaves are expected to become 5–10 times more frequent and far more intense. Summer temperatures above 40–50 °C are likely to become common in tropical and temperate regions, with heat-related mortality rising by 200–500%, especially in large cities due to the urban heat-island effect.
Precipitation will grow by 10–20% in northern regions such as Europe, Russia, and Canada — increasing flood risks — while droughts in the Mediterranean, Australia, and Southern Africa will last 20–50% longer. Category 4–5 hurricanes will occur 20–30% more often, accompanied by 15–25% more rainfall.
Rising Sea Levels
By 2100, sea levels are projected to rise by 0.6–1.1 meters — and by up to 2 meters by 2150 — driven by accelerating ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica. That would endanger 150–300 million people living in coastal regions, including the Nile, Ganges, and Mekong deltas and cities like Shanghai, Miami, and St. Petersburg. The global economy could lose 1–3% of GDP annually.
Nearly all coral reefs (up to 99%) are expected to die off, with 70% disappearing even at 1.5°C of warming. The Amazon could lose 20–40% of its forests, turning vast areas into savannah. Boreal forests and tundra will face 50% more wildfires, while soils may release an additional 100 gigatons of carbon. Up to 15–30% of species face extinction.
Agriculture & Food Security
Crop yields in tropical and subtropical regions — particularly wheat and corn — may fall 10–25%. Yields could increase by around 10% in northern regions such as Canada and Russia, but with higher pest risks. As a result, 200–500 million people could face food shortages, and global food prices may rise 20–50%.
Human Health
Climate-related deaths may increase by about 250,000 per year between 2030 and 2050, mainly from extreme heat, malnutrition, and malaria. Mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue will spread 500–1,000 km toward the poles.
Economy & Stability
Global GDP losses could reach $2–5 trillion annually (1–3%), and up to 5–10% in poorer regions. Climate change may force 100–300 million people to migrate by 2100 and increase conflicts over water and food, particularly in Africa and the Middle East.
These projections reflect IPCC AR6 findings and climate models including CMIP6 and SSP2-4.5 / SSP3-7.0 scenarios.
Meanwhile, the EU is considering whether to soften its 2040 climate target if forests fail to absorb enough CO₂. The original goal calls for a 90% emissions reduction by 2040, but some member states focused on protecting struggling domestic industries are pushing for greater flexibility.
