Photo: agroweek
During the first six months of the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine exported 7.86 million tonnes of wheat, down by 2 million tonnes year on year. The decline reflects major shifts in market conditions: traditional export flows to the European Union gave way to a more competitive environment amid tighter logistics.
Analysts note that harvest delays, a global grain surplus, the reintroduction of EU quotas, and disruptions at ports and along logistics chains narrowed Ukraine’s export window and rapidly redirected trade flows.
Sharp drop in EU shipments, surge to North Africa
Between July and December 2025/26, wheat exports to the EU fell to just 507,000 tonnes—only 6% of total shipments—compared with 3.37 million tonnes (34%) a year earlier. Spain remained the largest EU buyer, but its imports plunged to 276,000 tonnes from 2.3 million tonnes in 2024/25. Italy ranked second, cutting purchases to 157,000 tonnes from 400,000 tonnes the previous season.
As access to the EU diminished, North Africa emerged as the main destination for Ukrainian wheat. Shipments to the region reached 3.56 million tonnes in July–December 2025/26, accounting for 45% of total exports—up sharply from 2.15 million tonnes (22%) a year earlier. Egypt became the top buyer, nearly tripling imports to 2.03 million tonnes from 800,000 tonnes in 2024/25, while Algeria increased purchases to 1.2 million tonnes from 740,000 tonnes.
Other markets
The Middle East accounted for 1.3 million tonnes (18%), supported in part by higher demand from Yemen, where imports rose to 540,000 tonnes from 290,000 tonnes a year earlier.
By contrast, shipments to Southeast Asia declined to 2.2 million tonnes (28%) due to intense competition from Australia and ample global supply. Imports fell in several key markets, including Vietnam (to 520,000 tonnes from 820,000), Thailand (to 170,000 from 640,000), and Tunisia (to 250,000 from 450,000). Indonesia remained the region’s largest buyer, though volumes edged down to 1.4 million tonnes from 1.55 million tonnes.
Overall, rising demand from North Africa helped partially offset weaker EU sales, providing a critical buffer for Ukrainian wheat exporters amid shifting global trade dynamics.
