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Strikes by Ukrainian drones on Russian energy infrastructure have paralyzed shipments of Kazakh oil through the Novorossiysk terminal. In December 2025, export volumes fell to a critical level, forcing global giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil to look for alternative routes.
Exports of Kazakhstan’s main crude grade, CPC Blend, dropped in December 2025 to their lowest level in 14 months due to damage to infrastructure on Russian territory. The main cause of the large-scale disruption was successful Ukrainian drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal and “shadow fleet” tankers, compounded by adverse weather conditions in the Black Sea. According to market analysts, loading volumes fell from a planned 1.7 million barrels per day to 1.14 million barrels per day, Reuters reports.
Technological collapse: drones disable key berths
As a result of successful Ukrainian drone strikes on port infrastructure, the offshore loading point SPM-2 (single-point mooring) was taken out of service. Since another facility (SPM-3) was already undergoing maintenance, only one of the three loading points is currently operational. Later, on November 29, a Ukrainian drone attack near the Bosphorus Strait critically damaged two Russian “shadow fleet” tankers.
Due to stormy weather in the Black Sea, Russian specialists are unable to begin repair work, leading to a complete halt in exports for many tankers. Storage tanks at the terminal are now full, forcing Kazakhstan to cut production at its key oil fields.
Blow to oil giants and global prices
The situation around the CPC terminal and the damage to tankers directly affects the interests of the world’s largest energy corporations:
Chevron (USA)
Exxon Mobil (USA)
Eni (Italy)
Shell (UK/Netherlands)
Global markets reacted immediately to the supply shortage and transportation risks. Brent crude prices jumped by more than $1 per barrel following news of the attacks’ impact. Experts note that, for now, the only real alternative for buyers is North Sea oil, which puts additional pressure on the European market.
Search for alternative routes
Kazakh exporters are trying to minimize losses by redirecting part of their oil through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline and to China. However, these routes have limited capacity and cannot replace the CPC, which previously обеспечed the main flow of foreign currency revenues for the country. Exports are expected to partially recover to 1.65 million barrels per day in January 2026, but only if repairs are successfully completed.
The campaign of strikes on Russian oil refineries, launched in the summer of 2025, has already reshaped the energy and financial landscape of the aggressor state. If a year ago such attacks seemed largely symbolic, they have now become a systemic element of economic pressure, pushing Russia’s fuel market into a prolonged state of shock. Oleg Sarkits, in his article “From Feodosia to Ufa: The Strategic Effectiveness of Tactical Strikes on Russian Refineries,” described how Ukraine has turned drones into the most effective economic weapon of the war.
