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Russia’s intensified assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are pushing the country’s power grid to the brink of collapse, according to officials and analysts familiar with the situation. The renewed wave of mass strikes appears aimed at demoralizing Ukraine, even as the White House pressures Kyiv to consider a peace agreement.
A sustained campaign of Russian drone and missile attacks targeting energy facilities began in October and has since caused widespread electricity shortages nationwide as winter sets in, reporters for The Washington Post note.
Several sources say the strikes threaten to completely disable electricity transmission from western Ukraine—where most power generation currently occurs—to the east, effectively splitting the country’s grid in two.
“We are either on the verge of a total blackout in the eastern part of the country or very close to it,” said a senior European diplomat, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Experts agree it is nearly impossible to predict how many more attacks Russia would need to achieve its objective of cutting power to parts of the country, including Kyiv. The outcome depends on which facilities are hit and whether Ukraine has sufficient backup equipment to carry out rapid repairs.
“Ukraine, which has long endured energy attacks, is undoubtedly in one of the most precarious positions in its history,” the correspondents write. “The strikes have also weakened already limited air defense capabilities, exposing serious vulnerabilities that could make it harder to protect what remains of the energy network.”
One potential solution proposed by Kyiv is an “energy ceasefire,” under which Russia would halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in exchange for Ukraine stopping strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities. However, Moscow said last week it is not prepared to consider such an arrangement.
Although long power outages, darkened streets, and the constant hum of diesel generators have become routine in Kyiv, this winter’s attacks appear more sustained and more precisely targeted.
Deputy Energy Minister Mykola Kolisnyk said Russia launched about 5,000 drones and missiles in November alone, compared with roughly 2,000 per month earlier this year. These included hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles aimed at power plants, transmission networks, and gas infrastructure—often concentrating on specific regions.
Air attacks have also become more frequent, leaving less time to repair damage. Kolisnyk noted that by early December, energy workers had reduced daily power outages in Kyiv to about 2.5 hours. However, a major overnight attack on December 5 critically damaged the grid again, sharply worsening electricity supply in the capital.
“We are responding as quickly as we can, but it is becoming increasingly difficult. We have lost a significant portion of our capacity,” said Maksym Tymchenko, CEO of DTEK. “Our main task now is to find replacement equipment across Europe and deliver it to Ukraine as fast as possible. The most critical items are transformers and gas compressors.”
Beyond splitting the national grid in two, the Kremlin is also pursuing a strategy of creating so-called “energy islands,” the European diplomat said—isolated regions cut off from power generation, supply, and the main transmission system.
Despite constant attacks and what officials describe as clear attempts to disrupt power transmission between different parts of the country, Ukraine’s energy system is still functioning.
“We are now one step away from a complete blackout in Kyiv,” said one person familiar with the energy crisis.
Another source added that in 2022, major repair work during a nationwide blackout took only two days. If Ukraine receives the necessary materials quickly and Russia does not repeatedly strike the same sites, repairs could again be carried out swiftly—and it would not be “the end of the world.”
