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Climate warming is dramatically altering the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere, significantly affecting ecosystems, agriculture, and infrastructure.
According to the study, rainfall and snowfall respond differently to rising temperatures: rainfall intensifies by +2.27 mm per degree Kelvin, while snowfall weakens by –1.63 mm per degree. The greatest changes are observed in the mid-latitudes — between 30° and 60° N. As the authors note, “liquid precipitation shows much higher sensitivity to warming than solid precipitation.”
Spatial analysis revealed that extreme rainfall events now affect 22% of the Northern Hemisphere, while intensified snowfalls occur over only 4.7% of areas, mainly above 70° N or in mountain regions. This imbalance highlights a shifting global hydrological balance and the emergence of a new “water reality” — with heavier but shorter precipitation events.
The share of extreme rainfall among total precipitation increases annually by 0.038%, compared to 0.017% for snowfall. These trends could heighten flood risks in mid-latitudes and destabilize snow cover in colder regions. “Extreme precipitation is a key factor in managing climate risks,” emphasized Li Yupen, the study’s lead author.
Researchers stress that these findings are crucial for climate adaptation strategies, helping design region-specific approaches to reduce natural disaster risks.
