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Regardless of the outcome of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest attempt to end the war in Ukraine, Europe fears that any eventual agreement could fail to punish or weaken Russia as European leaders hope, potentially putting the continent’s security at greater risk.
Europe may even face a scenario where economic ties between Washington—its traditional NATO ally—and Moscow, which most European governments and NATO consider the greatest threat to European security, are strengthened, Reuters reports. While Ukrainians and other Europeans have managed to push back against parts of the U.S. 28-point ceasefire plan deemed too pro-Russian, any agreement still carries significant risks for the continent. Europe’s ability to influence the deal remains limited, in large part due to its lack of hard power to dictate terms. European representatives were absent from the U.S.-Ukraine negotiations in Florida over the weekend and will only observe as U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin today.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Europeans will have a role in discussing NATO and EU involvement in any peace settlement. However, European diplomats remain skeptical.
They warn that nearly every aspect of a deal will impact Europe—from potential territorial concessions to U.S.-Russia economic cooperation. The latest initiative has also raised European concerns about U.S. commitments to NATO, ranging from nuclear deterrence to conventional forces and tens of thousands of deployed troops. European officials note no signs that Putin intends to halt the invasion of Ukraine. But if he does, they fear any deal that fails to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity could embolden Russia to attack beyond its borders.
Currently, it seems likely that any peace agreement could allow Moscow to retain control over Ukrainian territories seized by force, regardless of whether borders are officially altered. The Trump administration has not dismissed Russian claims to the remainder of Donbas, which Moscow failed to capture after nearly four years of conflict.
“Moreover, Trump and other U.S. officials have clearly signaled that they see major opportunities for business deals with Moscow after the war. European officials fear that lifting Russia’s isolation from the Western economy could provide Moscow with billions to rebuild its military,” the agency adds.
Despite providing Ukraine with roughly €180 billion in assistance since the February 2022 invasion, European leaders have limited influence over the peace process.
The EU holds a key leverage in the form of frozen Russian assets. However, EU leaders have yet to agree on a proposal to use these assets to fund a €140 billion loan to Ukraine, which could sustain Kyiv and support its fight over the next two years.
To demonstrate their ability to enforce tough measures, the “coalition of the willing” led by France and the U.K. has promised to deploy “security forces” as part of post-war guarantees for Ukraine. “Europeans are now paying the price for underinvesting in military capabilities over the past years. They are not at the negotiation table. As Trump said, they have no cards,” said Claudia Major, Senior Vice President for Transatlantic Security at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
