Photo: EPA
The European Union continues to be portrayed in Russian discourse as the main adversary that should be punished or dismantled.
As Russia fails to achieve a breakthrough on the battlefield in Ukraine, it responds by intensifying strikes on Kyiv. Meanwhile, concerns are growing in European capitals that Russian leader Vladimir Putin could attempt to expand the war beyond Ukraine and draw Europe into the conflict, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Although such fears have existed before, recent developments have made them more acute. Several European national security officials say Russia could attempt to test NATO unity by targeting one of the Baltic states, Danish or Swedish islands in the Baltic Sea, or Allied territory in the Arctic.
According to Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson, the security situation in Europe has deteriorated over the past two years, with Russia increasingly willing to take greater risks in hybrid operations, including elements of direct force. He stressed the need to strengthen deterrence and defence capabilities against Russia.
European officials also believe that signals from US President Donald Trump about a possible NATO withdrawal and reduced American troop presence in Europe have weakened deterrence. There are additional concerns that Russia could exploit the situation within the next year, as consequences of the war with Iran and rising oil prices may trigger new political crises in Europe and strengthen far-right forces calling for a return to Russian energy imports and reduced support for Ukraine.
France’s Minister for Europe, Benjamin Haddad, stated that Russia aims to undermine the entire European security system, which is why continued support for Ukraine and European rearmament remain essential.
However, intelligence and military officials across Europe say there are currently no indications that Russia is preparing troop deployments or logistics for strikes on NATO countries. At the same time, they warn that Putin may soon face difficult decisions due to heavy losses.
Western intelligence estimates suggest that Russia is losing nearly 35,000 soldiers per month and is struggling to replenish these numbers. Sustaining the current pace of war may soon require forced mobilisation, something the Kremlin has so far avoided since the partial mobilisation of 300,000 troops in 2022.
Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top foreign policy official, warned that any mobilisation would signal an admission of failure and could push Russia toward escalation to justify continued war efforts. She stressed that while Russia’s tactics may evolve, its strategic goals remain unchanged.
EU Commissioner for Democracy, Justice and the Rule of Law Michael McGrath stated that Russia views the EU as a threat to its authoritarian system and ultimately seeks to weaken or destroy the Union.
The WSJ also notes that during recent military exercises, Ukrainian drone units demonstrated the ability to quickly defeat significantly larger NATO-style forces. At the same time, Russia has extensive experience with drone warfare, meaning it could perform more effectively against European armies in a potential conflict, particularly without rapid US support.
According to Estonia’s foreign intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin, while mobilisation in Russia is technically feasible due to an existing system, it would carry major internal risks and unpredictable consequences.
Norbert Röttgen, a senior German parliamentarian, added that Putin may consider expanding the war into NATO territory as a way out of a deadlock in Ukraine, but such a move would be highly risky.
NATO Military Committee Chair Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone reaffirmed that Russia remains the alliance’s primary threat and warned of continued military build-up.
The article concludes that Europe is still debating whether war is likely, and this uncertainty itself may increase vulnerability. In a separate analysis, Valeriy Prymost warns that Europe’s reliance on fear rather than strength could lead to unfavourable outcomes.
