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An exclusive analysis by researchers at University College London (UCL) and The Guardian reveals that vast regions of Southern and Central Europe are losing groundwater and surface water at unprecedented rates. NASA’s GRACE and GRACE-FO satellites (2002–2024), which “weigh” water by detecting shifts in Earth’s gravity field, have recorded dramatic drying in:
- Spain, Italy, France, Switzerland, Germany, Romania, Ukraine
- the east and southeast of the UK
- parts of Poland and Ukraine
By contrast, only northern and northwestern areas — such as Scandinavia, parts of the UK, and Portugal — have become wetter.
“This is a direct consequence of climate change. We are no longer on track to keep warming within 1.5°C — we are heading toward 2°C, and we are seeing the impacts right now,” said UCL’s Professor Mohammad Shamsudduha.
Groundwater — the most stable water reserve — is also being depleted. In southeast England, where 70% of drinking water comes from aquifers, altered rainfall patterns (short, intense downpours followed by long droughts) already pose a serious risk. Despite an overall decrease in water extraction, EU groundwater abstraction rose by 6% from 2000 to 2022. Groundwater supplies 62% of public water and 33% of agricultural demand in EU member states.
These changes are driving the risk of continued drought in England through 2026 and could trigger severe water restrictions in the UK as early as next summer. Food security is also at stake: Spain — a major supplier of fruit and vegetables to the UK and other EU countries — is rapidly losing water.
Scientists are calling for urgent action:
- drastically reduce leakage (currently 8% to 57% across the EU)
- expand water reuse
- build a “water-smart” economy
- massively scale up rainwater harvesting, even in countries like the UK
Worldwide, the worst water depletion hotspots include the Middle East, Asia, South America, the western United States, Canada, Greenland, Iceland, and Svalbard. In Iran, Tehran is facing a looming “day zero” — a complete loss of piped water.
The research serves as a stark warning for policymakers: the climate crisis is already hitting Europe, not just the Global South.
