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The administration of US President Donald Trump is preparing for the possibility of a military confrontation with Iran that could last from several days to several weeks, with the course of events expected to depend on Tehran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by Axios.
What began as a campaign aimed at weakening Iran’s missile capabilities and degrading its nuclear program has evolved into a broader confrontation centered on one of the world’s most strategically important maritime routes.
According to one US official, the duration of the escalation will depend on whether Iran continues attacking commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
“We’re going to teach them a lesson so they understand we’re serious,” the official said.
Diplomacy stalls as military pressure increases
Diplomatic efforts are currently at an impasse, while military pressure has again become the centerpiece of Washington’s strategy.
On July 8, Trump said the 60-day ceasefire envisioned under the US-Iran memorandum of understanding had effectively ended following renewed exchanges of fire triggered by attacks on commercial shipping. The United States subsequently carried out a second round of strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, targeting Iranian infrastructure.
Iran responded by launching attacks against US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, while insisting it would not abandon its claims regarding control of the strategic waterway.
Trump also suggested Washington remained open to de-escalation, claiming Iranian officials had recently contacted him seeking a new agreement. Iranian authorities have not publicly confirmed any direct communication.
Competing views on the Strait of Hormuz
Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the United States of intimidation and breaking previous commitments.
“If you strike, you will receive a response. The Strait of Hormuz will be open only under Iranian terms, not American threats,” he wrote on X.
For Washington, restoring unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains a key objective because of its importance to global energy markets. For Tehran, maintaining influence over the waterway is considered a central strategic interest in any future settlement.
US officials argue that recent departures of hundreds of oil tankers from the Persian Gulf have reduced concerns that renewed fighting would immediately trigger a major spike in global oil prices.
According to one official, elements within Iran’s leadership became increasingly dissatisfied because they believed the temporary understanding with Washington had delivered few tangible economic benefits. Although some US sanctions had been eased, Iran continued to face obstacles exporting oil, while no frozen Iranian assets had yet been released because nuclear-related commitments remained unfulfilled.
US Vice President JD Vance reiterated Washington’s position:
“If they try to close the Strait of Hormuz, the United States Armed Forces will respond.”
