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The United States has warned Poland that Russia may be preparing a military provocation on Polish territory in an attempt to test NATO’s willingness to respond, The Telegraph reports, citing sources familiar with the matter.
According to the report, Washington has repeatedly shared intelligence with Warsaw indicating that Moscow could target critical infrastructure with missiles or drones, or even stage a limited ground incursion across the Polish border. The alleged objective would be to increase tensions within the Alliance and pressure Western governments to scale back military support for Ukraine.
Security sources told the newspaper that one possible scenario involves drone strikes on power facilities or simulated air attacks designed to trigger Poland’s air defence systems. Another scenario envisions a small-scale cross-border operation involving Russian or Belarusian troops under the guise of a navigation error or a rescue mission.
The report suggests that Moscow could hope such an incident would lead to negotiations rather than an immediate military response, allowing Russia to claim a political victory while seeking concessions, including reduced Western assistance to Ukraine.
Officials interviewed by The Telegraph also warned that Russia could attempt to portray Ukraine as being responsible for any provocation.
Potential launch areas for such operations include Kaliningrad, Russia’s heavily militarised exclave on the Baltic Sea, or neighbouring Belarus. Sources noted that Russia currently lacks the resources for a full-scale war against NATO because of its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, making hybrid operations a more likely option.
A diplomatic source from a NATO member state described the risk of a provocation against Poland or one of the Baltic states as serious, adding that the issue is being closely monitored.
Polish officials acknowledged that such a scenario cannot be ruled out and said the country has already conducted military exercises aimed at preparing for similar contingencies and deterring any potential aggression.
The report comes amid growing concern within NATO over Russian hybrid activities, including cyberattacks, sabotage and repeated airspace violations. Recent military exercises in Latvia, involving US naval and marine forces, were intended to demonstrate that any attack on NATO’s eastern flank would also threaten American troops stationed in the region.
Earlier, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) concluded that Russia’s long-running drone campaign had exposed weaknesses in NATO’s air-defence coordination and legal response mechanisms, highlighting gaps in the Alliance’s ability to respond collectively to hybrid threats.
