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European leaders increasingly doubt that U.S. President Donald Trump will change his approach to Ukraine, even as they continue trying to preserve relations with Washington. As Trump pressures Kyiv to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries and offers Moscow economic concessions, European governments are preparing for a scenario in which the United States effectively sides with Russia, Bloomberg reported on October 15.
Within a single week, Trump weakened years of energy sanctions against the Kremlin, pressured Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries and questioned the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, echoing Russian narratives. Ukraine also experienced restrictions on its access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite communications system, raising concerns about the impact on its battlefield capabilities.
Zelenskyy responded by publicly criticizing Trump and saying he felt betrayed. According to people familiar with discussions at the European Union summit in Brussels, the latest developments have alarmed European leaders, including officials from France and Germany. Some privately concluded that Trump’s inclination to pressure Kyiv while making concessions to Moscow is unlikely to change.
“The Western alliance is in a weaker position now than it was a few days ago,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told reporters in Brussels.
“If you do not support Ukraine, you put all of Europe, and therefore, in my opinion, NATO as a whole, in a much, much more dangerous position,” she added.
Europe struggles to preserve ties with Washington
Trump and Zelenskyy have experienced serious disputes before and managed to restore their working relationship. Their first meeting in the Oval Office last year ended in a public confrontation, followed by a temporary suspension of U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
Later, Washington pressed Kyiv to consider a 28-point peace proposal that largely reflected Russian interests. Zelenskyy warned at the time that Ukraine risked losing its most important partner.
European leaders subsequently sought to persuade Trump to take a more sympathetic approach toward Ukraine. At the Group of Seven summit in France, French President Emmanuel Macron arranged a brief meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, during which the Ukrainian president showed him photographs of a Kyiv cathedral destroyed by Russian missiles.
The latest deterioration in relations comes at a particularly difficult moment for Ukraine. Winter is approaching, and Kyiv faces shortages of Patriot interceptor missiles needed to defend against Russian missile attacks. Ukraine’s military spending has also created a substantial budget deficit that Europe is finding increasingly difficult to cover.
Meanwhile, Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure have repeatedly disrupted electricity and water supplies in Kyiv.
Next month, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to have an opportunity to meet Trump at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China. Zelenskyy and European leaders are not expected to attend.
Trump is also approaching the U.S. midterm elections in November, with his Republican Party facing the prospect of significant losses. His administration is therefore under pressure to lower fuel prices, a priority that helps explain the president’s interest in importing Russian diesel despite sanctions.
Reuters reported that the U.S.-Russia diesel agreement is intended, in part, to encourage Moscow to return to peace negotiations. The deal has drawn criticism from U.S. lawmakers and Ukrainian officials, who argue that it provides Russia with additional revenue without guaranteeing meaningful concessions.
Experts, meanwhile, have attributed much of the recent increase in fuel prices to the war involving the United States and Iran rather than Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.
European leaders urge restraint but maintain support for Kyiv
Most European leaders are advising Zelenskyy to moderate his public criticism of Trump because they believe there is no viable alternative to cooperation with the United States, Bloomberg reported.
Washington continues to supply Ukraine with weapons and intelligence that remain essential to its defense. European governments fear they would struggle to compensate fully if access to American intelligence were withdrawn.
That concern has encouraged European leaders to avoid publicly confronting Trump too aggressively, although some reportedly expressed shock at his recent decisions during private discussions in Brussels.
At the same time, the European Union intends to maintain its sanctions against Russia and insist that Ukraine should not be required to surrender territory as part of a peace agreement. That position has gained additional importance following recent Ukrainian advances in parts of eastern Donbas, territory Putin seeks to capture completely.
Europe’s ability to influence Kyiv has also increased as European governments provide more of the financing for Ukraine’s military support and purchases of American weapons. Ukraine has also begun receiving ammunition for F-16 fighter jets needed to intercept increasingly dangerous Russian jet-powered drones.
Peace efforts show little progress
Washington’s attempts to broker an end to the war have produced few tangible results, despite Trump’s previous promises to achieve a settlement soon after returning to office.
Recent talks in Florida ended without a breakthrough. The Ukrainian delegation reportedly departed early after the announcement of the U.S.-Russia diesel agreement. Discussions largely revisited proposals developed months earlier by Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, according to people familiar with the negotiations.
During a meeting on Monday, EU foreign ministers privately agreed that Europe’s policy toward Ukraine should remain consistent regardless of changes in Washington’s approach. They agreed to cooperate with the United States where possible while continuing to support Kyiv when cooperation was not possible.
“We clearly have different approaches to this war,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in Brussels.
“We believe we need to put pressure on the aggressor to stop the war, not on the victim to capitulate. Putting pressure on Ukraine is the wrong approach,” she added.
Despite their growing concerns about Trump’s policy, European leaders continue to see maintaining transatlantic ties as essential to Ukraine’s defense. Their immediate challenge is to preserve American military and intelligence support while preparing for the possibility that Washington’s priorities will increasingly diverge from those of Kyiv and its European allies.
