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The Kremlin views the latest deterioration in relations between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a political victory, seeking to exploit Washington’s pressure to force Kyiv into concessions, including over Donbas, The Washington Post reported.
Moscow sees the developments, alongside political turbulence in Europe, as evidence that Western support for Ukraine is beginning to weaken. Ten days after Trump’s latest phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the US president announced sanctions relief affecting Russian diesel exports to global markets.
His administration has also restricted Ukraine’s access to key satellite systems, delayed broader sanctions against Russia and held up approval of critical interceptor missiles. Trump has repeatedly suggested that someone other than Zelenskyy should lead Ukraine’s negotiations.
Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev celebrated the shift with a post reading “Checkmate.” Russian officials have increasingly spoken of an approaching victory and the prospect of closer ties with Washington.
“There are some recent signs of agony. The Kyiv regime is resisting. But this cannot change the course of events,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Analysts and officials cited by the Post pointed to Putin’s longstanding experience influencing foreign leaders, including through flattery. They believe the Russian president may have used that approach to persuade Trump to shift his position.
The Kremlin appears to have taken advantage of Trump’s concerns about low approval ratings and high energy prices ahead of the US midterm elections. The proposed diesel arrangement would cover only a small fraction of daily US consumption and is unlikely to affect prices. The average US diesel price nevertheless rose to $6.33 per gallon on Friday, about five cents higher than a week earlier.
“Russia’s leaders achieved a certain political victory. All of this happened after their phone call. Putin probably managed to persuade Trump,” a Russian academic close to senior diplomats told the newspaper.
Exiled Russian opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky said the Kremlin believed it had identified and exploited a moment of weakness for Trump.
“For Putin, everything happening today is a sign of Western weakness,” Khodorkovsky said.
Moscow seeks broader economic cooperation
Dmitriev and other Russian officials have welcomed not only the diesel arrangement but also Trump’s decision not to impose tougher sanctions under legislation associated with the late US senator Lindsey Graham. Moscow is presenting these moves as a possible starting point for broader economic cooperation with the United States.
Historically, however, Russia and the US have had limited economic ties, with relatively few Russian exports attracting substantial demand in the American market.
“A whole range of economic and investment projects is being discussed with the American side,” Dmitriev said at a Russian energy forum last week. He cited potential cooperation in the Arctic, energy and liquefied natural gas, adding that more Americans, including administration officials, were recognizing that sanctions harmed the United States itself.
Daniel Fried, a former US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, said Trump appeared to want a pre-election argument that he had secured a deal to lower diesel prices. Fried suggested that Trump’s frustration reflected domestic political pressure and concerns about the midterms.
He also pointed to what he described as a shared worldview between Trump and Putin, in which powerful leaders divide the world into spheres of influence. Under that approach, Ukraine’s interests could be treated as expendable in pursuit of broader strategic objectives, Fried argued.
A former senior US intelligence official, speaking anonymously, said Trump appeared to favor Putin over Zelenskyy in the longer term, partly because of his affinity for strong authoritarian leaders. The official also suggested that Trump might believe Ukraine could not defeat Russia because of Moscow’s greater size and military resources.
Andrew Weiss, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, sees signs that Washington may be trying to secure a deal by December, when Trump plans to host the G20 leaders’ summit in Miami and has invited Putin.
Weiss said the pressure appeared linked to Trump’s belief that he could push Ukraine toward a political settlement. Russia, he argued, was attempting to use the US administration as a “battering ram” to force Kyiv to surrender Donbas.
Even if Ukraine made that concession, Weiss warned, Moscow could follow with further demands to restrict Ukraine’s military capabilities. He added that US administrations had repeatedly misjudged Russia’s objectives, which the Kremlin makes difficult to assess by failing to state clearly what it ultimately wants.
Concerns over US military support
The reported shift comes as the Trump administration delays approval for partner countries to transfer Patriot interceptor missiles to Ukraine. Some deliveries require personal authorization from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth because Washington retains control over the re-export of US-made weapons.
Zelenskyy also discussed difficulties with US support with Secretary of State Marco Rubio while traveling to Oslo. Their conversation covered Starlink communications, Patriot interceptors and intelligence sharing.
Zelenskyy described the call as positive and expressed hope that full Starlink functionality could be restored. The two agreed to speak again within 48 hours.
