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The Russian Federation is the primary threat to both Sweden and the NATO alliance, and Moscow’s increasingly risky behavior could trigger dangerous escalation, Politico reports.
Sweden’s annual intelligence assessment cited examples of hostile Russian activity in the region, including in the Baltic Sea, such as airspace violations, sabotage, and cyber operations. The report states that Russia is the main military threat to Sweden and NATO, describing the danger as “serious and concrete” and Moscow’s actions as “opportunistic and aggressive.”
The Swedish evaluation follows a recent warning from Estonia’s intelligence service, which described Russia as “dangerous despite its incompetence.” At the same time, Estonia urged against panic, saying it had found no evidence that Russia plans to attack a country or the alliance in 2027. Analysts there suggested a near-term invasion is unlikely due to strengthened European defenses.
“Our protection lies in the strength of the alliance and in the belief, shared by both us and Russia, in Article 5,” a senior official said. Recent pledges by NATO members to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP were also cited as a deterrent. “As long as we keep investing, it keeps us on the side of the equation Russia would not dare to challenge,” the official added.
However, Estonia’s report also warned that Russia has sharply increased artillery production—by roughly 17 times since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine—indicating it will remain a threat even if peace is achieved. “You can’t simply switch all that off the day the war ends,” a senior NATO representative said, noting that in some areas Russia could emerge militarily stronger than it was at the start of the war.
Recently, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Russia would remain a threat to the alliance even after any peace deal with Ukraine. He also stated days earlier that NATO would win a war against Russia if Moscow attacked now.
Some Western officials believe Russia may still be preparing for a future confrontation with NATO, possibly within several years. Dutch Defense Minister Rubén Brekelmans has suggested such an attack could occur before 2030, while German military officials recently estimated that a potential clash could be 2–3 years away, possibly centered on Germany.
