Photo: ZN
The world order that emerged after World War II will not be restored even after US President Donald Trump leaves the White House, columnist Serge Schmemann argues in an opinion piece for The New York Times.
The rise of China, Russia’s war in Europe and the retreat of liberal democracy have fundamentally changed the international landscape. Schmemann outlines three possible scenarios for the next 12 years. In the most optimistic outcome for Ukraine, the fighting would be frozen and the country’s economy would recover rapidly. In the worst-case scenario, Russia would threaten a tactical nuclear strike.
Schmemann writes that both America and what it represents have changed, with Trump at the center of this transformation. He seeks powers beyond those envisioned by the Constitution and challenges the postwar international order. Even a successor from the MAGA movement, such as Marco Rubio or JD Vance, would be unlikely to act with the same unpredictability and vindictiveness. Nevertheless, too much has already changed for the US-led order to return to its previous state.
The columnist identifies several new realities: China has become a greater rival to the United States than the Soviet Union once was; Russia has re-emerged as a threat and launched a war in Europe; and democracy is retreating worldwide, with the United States itself leading the way. New technologies and the negative consequences of globalization — including migration, inequality, cybercrime and polarization — add to the challenges.
“There is no reset button in history,” Schmemann writes.
His scenarios are based on conversations with experts and their work, rather than a scientific forecast. He quotes baseball legend Yogi Berra: “If you don't know where you're going, you might end up someplace else.”
Scenario 1: America returns
In the most optimistic scenario, a leader committed to the rule of law and liberal democracy takes office in Washington. European countries assume greater responsibility for their own defense, while Russian President Vladimir Putin loses power and fighting in Ukraine is frozen. This allows Ukraine to rebuild its economy rapidly, with the possibility of eventually regaining territory.
China overtakes the United States economically but not militarily, and the two superpowers seek ways to coexist. The United Nations regains influence, aid to poorer countries resumes, and international affairs are managed through a concert of major powers.
Scenario 2: Muddling through
A new US administration repeals Trump’s tariffs and seeks to restore relations with allies, but domestic polarization persists. Most countries, including European nations and Canada, no longer regard the United States as a moral leader. Alliances weaken, and countries increasingly turn toward China.
Putin is removed from power by a junta of military and security officials, but Russia’s war against Ukraine becomes a prolonged confrontation without a clear winner. The world remains broadly at peace, but the situation could change at any moment as China rapidly expands its military capabilities.
Scenario 3: Unchecked decline
Political polarization paralyzes the United States, NATO and other alliances lose their purpose, and institutions such as the United Nations, World Trade Organization, World Bank and International Monetary Fund decline.
China annexes Taiwan without facing international military intervention, but its economic growth stalls. Unregulated artificial intelligence triggers new crises. Russia, whose oil and gas infrastructure has been damaged by Ukrainian drones, threatens a tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine. Conflicts erupt across the Caucasus, the Balkans and Africa.
In this scenario, Schmemann warns, the world becomes a dark place, with America no longer there to turn on the lights.
The columnist stresses that the future need not be bleak. Ukrainians have demonstrated exceptional determination in defending their freedom. American judges frequently challenge Trump, while journalists risk their lives to pursue the truth. Elections can change political direction, as seen in Poland and Hungary, although results can also raise concerns, as demonstrated by the electoral gains of Germany’s Alternative for Germany party in regional elections.
The world will watch the US midterm elections on November 3 closely, and the 2028 presidential election even more closely. “The key is not to wait too long,” Schmemann writes.
Meanwhile, European leaders have grown accustomed to Trump’s provocations, reducing the initial shock. Allies are primarily seeking to limit the damage until his term ends. French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney have openly pushed back against Trump’s insults and emerged as prominent voices of resistance, although analysts remain divided over whether directly confronting the US president is the right strategy.
