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Estonia is changing its defense strategy in response to the growing threat from Russia, moving its main combat brigade closer to the Russian border and strengthening its long-range strike capabilities, the Financial Times reported on October 5.
Under the new “active defence” doctrine, Estonia is permanently relocating its 1st Infantry Brigade from Tapa to Jõhvi, about 50 kilometers from the Russian border. New facilities are being built in Jõhvi to accommodate the brigade.
Estonia is also building a new military base in the border city of Narva. The facility is expected to accommodate up to 1,000 service members, including a permanent contingent of about 200 troops.
Why Estonia is changing its strategy
For years, Estonia prepared for a scenario in which a Russian attack would be met with rapid mobilization and a guerrilla-style defense while the country waited for NATO reinforcements.
The war in Ukraine has led Estonian military planners to reassess that approach. They concluded that Russia could accept heavy casualties and continue fighting to seize and hold territory even after much of the infrastructure had been destroyed.
The new doctrine calls for defending Estonian territory from the first hours of an attack rather than relying primarily on delaying tactics.
“We have to start from the border and win from the first battles,” Col. Tarmo Kundla, commander of the 1st Infantry Brigade, told the Financial Times.
Estonian officials also fear that Russia could attempt a limited incursion to test NATO’s willingness to invoke its collective-defense commitments. Estonia’s military intelligence considers the next one to four years a potentially critical period for the Baltic states.
Estonia expands long-range strike capabilities
Alongside the deployment changes, Estonia is strengthening its ability to strike targets at long distances.
The country has acquired U.S.-made HIMARS systems and is expanding its arsenal with South Korean Chunmoo multiple-launch rocket systems. Estonia’s Defense Ministry says its HIMARS capability is designed to conduct precision strikes at ranges of up to 300 kilometers, while additional Chunmoo launchers are being procured.
According to the Financial Times, Estonia has also signed contracts covering M57 ballistic missiles. Their stated range of up to 300 kilometers would put targets around St. Petersburg, about 260 kilometers from Estonia, within potential reach from parts of the country.
Estonia’s defense spending is also rising sharply. FT reported that the country plans to spend about €2.4 billion on defense this year, equivalent to 5.4% of GDP.
Concern over Narva
Narva is a particular focus of Estonian security planning because it lies directly on the Russian border and has a large Russian-speaking population.
Estonian military and intelligence officials do not currently assess that Moscow is preparing for a full-scale war with NATO in the immediate future. However, they are concerned about a smaller-scale operation or provocation designed to test NATO’s political and military response.
Estonia’s Defense Ministry has said its objective is to keep both an attacking force and the destruction caused by war as far from Estonian territory as possible.
The changes are part of a broader effort by the Baltic states to strengthen their defenses using lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine and to ensure they can withstand the critical early stages of a potential conflict before allied reinforcements arrive.
