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During the eight-week ceasefire with the United States, Iran reportedly rebuilt roughly three-quarters of its missile arsenal and supplemented it with newly produced Russian missiles, according to Bloomberg. As a result, Tehran could be capable of launching a near full-scale retaliatory strike if hostilities resume.
Intelligence assessments suggest Iran now possesses around 75% of the missile inventory it had before the war and may be able to increase that number further. The estimates reportedly include Russian-made missiles produced within the past year.
Analysts believe this gives Iran significant strike capability despite the damage inflicted during the conflict. In March, Tehran was estimated to have retained only about 60% of its pre-war missile stockpile amid U.S. and Israeli operations targeting its long-range strike infrastructure.
Between February 28 and April 8, when the ceasefire took effect, Iran launched more than 1,850 missiles across the region and at least twice as many Shahed-type drones.
According to U.S. and Israeli assessments, roughly two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers were destroyed during the first month of the war. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed in mid-March that Iran’s offensive capabilities had been reduced by 90%, while President Donald Trump recently stated that only 21–22% of the country’s missile inventory remained.
However, intelligence sources believe many missiles and launchers survived because they were stored in underground facilities whose entrances became blocked by debris. Iran is thought to have used the ceasefire period to reopen these sites and redistribute its weapons.
Experts also note that Iran likely retains the industrial capacity to continue producing Shahed drones, although access to some materials—particularly explosives—may have become more difficult after weeks of bombardment.
The report suggests that Iran’s ability to restore much of its missile arsenal could complicate any U.S. decision to resume large-scale military operations, while raising questions about the long-term effectiveness of previous strikes against Iran’s defense industry.
