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U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly warned several European governments that Russia could be preparing drone operations against Mediterranean countries, including Spain, France and Italy, El Mundo reported on September 23.
According to the Spanish newspaper, the intelligence information was shared with European governments and points to a possible Russian operation involving drones launched from the sea.
A source close to Lithuania’s Defense Ministry told El Mundo that Russia could potentially use civilian vessels to conceal and transport relatively small drones. The report identified the Russian-made Gerbera as one possible platform, but the information has not been publicly confirmed by the U.S. or European governments.
Growing concern over Russian hybrid activity
The reported warning comes amid increasing concern among European governments about Russian hybrid operations, including sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and attempts to test NATO’s response to incidents near or on Alliance territory.
Recent incidents cited in European security discussions include Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace and the armed-drone incident at Leipzig Airport, which German authorities have linked to Russian intelligence. French President Emmanuel Macron has also ordered measures to strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure against potential drone and cyberattacks.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has separately warned that Russia could be preparing drone or missile attacks on NATO territory and could seek to portray such incidents as accidents in order to complicate an allied response.
Possible political and economic impact
El Mundo reported that intelligence assessments see Mediterranean countries as potential targets partly because Spain, France and Italy are important political and economic centers and face elections or political campaigns in 2027.
Security analysts cited by the newspaper said any such operation would not necessarily be intended to cause large-scale physical destruction. Smaller drone attacks could instead seek to disrupt infrastructure, create uncertainty and demonstrate that Russia can threaten countries far from the front line.
British Russia-security analyst Keir Giles argued that geographic distance from Russia would not necessarily provide protection.
“The target will not necessarily be the countries on the frontline. The target will be wherever Europe’s weakest point is,” Giles said, according to El Mundo.
The report also linked the alleged preparations to broader Russian efforts to pressure European countries over their support for Ukraine. European officials have increasingly warned that Moscow may combine different forms of hybrid activity rather than rely on a single type of attack.
The reported intelligence assessment has not been publicly released, and there has been no official confirmation that Russia has decided to carry out an attack against Spain, France or Italy.
