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The United States now finds itself in a weaker position than before the war, as Tehran has demonstrated its ability to inflict significant pressure on the administration of Donald Trump.
The announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the war with Iran allowed Trump to declare the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a victorious “dawn of a new golden era,” but it is Iran that enters the negotiations from a stronger position, The Guardian writes. The regime in Tehran is heading into talks scheduled for Friday, April 10, in Pakistan battered but intact. It still possesses stockpiles of highly enriched uranium—the root cause of the conflict with the United States, Israel, and their allies—and now claims at least partial control over the strait after demonstrating its ability to shut down the narrow waterway.
Trump secured a short-term triumph, remaining the central figure of the crisis by alarming the world with threats to destroy an “entire civilization,” only to shift course hours later and announce progress toward long-term peace in the Middle East.
Following his statements, oil prices fell and global stock markets showed signs of recovery, underscoring his continued short-term influence over markets.
However, the actual terms of the ceasefire remain unclear, with differing interpretations circulating. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the truce applies “to all territories, including Lebanon,” while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly rejected this, vowing that Israel’s northern operations would continue.
Trump stated that the ceasefire depends on the “full, immediate, and secure reopening” of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran agreed to resume shipping through the waterway, but with the condition that passage would be controlled by Iranian armed forces.
Iran plans to implement its earlier proposal for joint control of the strait with Oman and to share revenue from transit fees. This would mark a major departure from the pre-war status quo, when the strait functioned as a free international waterway, potentially granting Iran a new source of income and strategic leverage.
Amid ongoing uncertainty, hundreds of vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf during the conflict are expected to attempt departure, though fewer ships may pass through the Strait of Hormuz due to fears of being trapped. Shipping companies are also concerned that paying transit fees to Iran could violate U.S. sanctions.
Over five weeks of war, Trump escalated increasingly dramatic threats, culminating in warnings of destroying an “entire civilization” in an attempt to force Tehran into last-minute concessions.
That approach appears to have failed. At a critical moment, it was Iran’s 10-point plan—not Trump’s 15-point proposal—that was accepted as the basis for negotiations in Pakistan. Trump, who had previously rejected the Iranian plan outright, later described it as a “workable foundation for talks.” The plan includes lifting all sanctions, paying reparations, and recognizing Iran’s right to enrich uranium—conditions Washington had consistently opposed.
There is little doubt that Iran will make its right to uranium enrichment a “red line” in negotiations over a long-term settlement, as it has in previous talks with the West. Iran’s stockpile of approximately 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium—potentially enough for multiple nuclear warheads—represents a significant bargaining chip.
During earlier negotiations disrupted by U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, Tehran may have been willing to relinquish these reserves. This highlights how the United States has emerged from the conflict in a weaker position than during the last round of talks in Geneva just days before the strikes.
Iran’s delegation will arrive in Islamabad having demonstrated to both the world and its own population that the regime can endure even under extreme pressure, despite significant losses, including the death of its supreme leader. At the time the ceasefire was announced, Iranian forces were still conducting military operations, including missile strikes against Israel and other U.S. allies.
The negotiations will also take place under a new reality in which Iran seeks to retain at least partial control over the Strait of Hormuz. While the U.S. delegation may threaten to walk away over Iran’s demands, Washington is aware that Tehran has proven its ability to inflict serious damage on the Trump administration through its control of this critical maritime chokepoint.
