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Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near term, as control over this key artery of global oil supplies remains Tehran’s main leverage over the United States, according to recent U.S. intelligence assessments reported by Reuters.
The reports suggest that Iran may continue to restrict traffic through the strait, keeping energy prices elevated in an effort to pressure U.S. President Donald Trump to seek a quicker resolution to the war, which has been ongoing for nearly five weeks and remains unpopular among American voters.
According to Reuters, the conflict — initially aimed at weakening Iran’s military capabilities — may instead be strengthening Tehran’s regional influence by demonstrating its ability to threaten a critical maritime route.
Trump has downplayed the complexity of restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply is transported. On Friday, he suggested he could order U.S. forces to reopen the passage.
However, analysts have long warned that using force against Iran, which controls one side of the strait, could prove costly and risk dragging the United States into a prolonged ground conflict.
One expert noted that Tehran understands its ability to influence global energy markets through control of the strait — calling it “more powerful than even nuclear weapons.”
Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz early in the war with the United States and Israel. Since then, global oil prices have surged, as many tankers have been unable to pass through the route.
Trump has attempted to reopen the passage, even seeking support from NATO allies, but has recently signaled a shift toward alternative solutions for the market.
