Photo: The political party “Voice of Change”
While Ukraine retains control of the Odesa Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Kherson Oblast, it will remain a threat to Russia.
Secretary of the parliamentary committee on national security, defense, and intelligence Roman Kostenko said there are currently no military indicators suggesting the war could end soon. In a comment to Novyny.Live, he expressed the view that Russia may instead intensify operations in the near future to fully occupy Donetsk Oblast and then shift focus to southern Ukraine.
If that southern territory remains under Ukrainian control, Russia would effectively lose the rationale for continuing the war, Kostenko said. He noted that although Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, it can no longer safely base its ships there.
“They used to boast about it as a naval base, but now they are afraid because our Defense Forces sink their vessels even on Russian territory. In Crimea even more so — they’re afraid to be there,” he said.
He added that Russia is also struggling economically in the southern territories it occupies. It cannot effectively use the Black Sea to transport oil and agricultural products obtained through occupation. The Bosporus is also closed to it.
“Ukraine will always be a threat to them as long as we hold Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions. They understand that perfectly. And they know that militarily they won’t be able to influence us if the south remains under our control. Economically as well, because a large share of Ukraine’s GDP comes from seaports. If those aren’t shut down, Ukraine will never be forced into negotiations and will remain self-sufficient,” Kostenko said.
Earlier, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that since late January Ukrainian Defense Forces had liberated about 400 square kilometers on the Oleksandrivskyi axis — the junction of Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. According to analysts at Institute for the Study of War, six of the eight liberated settlements are Andriivka, Ostapivske, Pishchane, Nechaivka, Radisne, and Nove Zaporizhzhia.
