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Kyiv and Moscow are currently playing a game to avoid angering Trump, each for its own reasons.
Ukraine and Russia continue to send delegations to trilateral talks with the U.S. to appease President Donald Trump, but in reality these meetings have led both sides into a deadlock, and peace is currently blocked. Nothing in the talks indicates any forward movement, according to the WSJ. Optimistic diplomatic buzzwords used by Kyiv and Moscow representatives for each track mean little — the process has become political theater.
“These negotiations are not bringing us closer to ending the war,” said former U.S. ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder. “It’s a game to avoid blame on Trump for failing to end the war.” A source in Kyiv, commenting on the talks in the Emirates and Switzerland, noted that at the very least they showed Washington that Ukraine is not a problem. But both Kyiv and Moscow worry that the U.S. president may lose patience — cut aid to Ukraine (even though Europeans pay for much of it) and impose sanctions on Russia.
“Putin cannot afford to anger Trump, as the Russian economy is rapidly deteriorating, and new sanctions would be counterproductive. So he carefully plays the role of someone prepared for a peaceful resolution,” said political analyst and former Kremlin spokesperson Abbas Gallyamov.
Some experts, however, consider these negotiations real rather than purely performative. According to Thomas Graham of the Council on Foreign Relations, the very limited information available about the talks reflects their seriousness.
“That doesn’t mean we’ll get a deal. But people are trying,” he added.
Meanwhile, Carnegie Center analyst Tetiana Stanova notes that Russia believes it is winning both on the battlefield and the diplomatic front. Moscow views the process as gradually pushing Ukraine toward goals favorable to Russia.
“The message is: ‘We could stop the war today, but you must meet all our demands.’ It’s the same position. Nothing has changed,” she added.
Senior European officials have indicated that the war could continue for another one to three years. Some U.S. officials, meanwhile, hope a peace agreement could be finalized ahead of the midterm elections in November.
Retired U.S. Air Force General David Deptula emphasized that wars are fought not only on the battlefield but also in perception and narratives, which affect political will and economic expectations — and Vladimir Putin understands this. He stressed that the Russian leader’s strategy today depends less on the battlefield than on convincing the world — particularly Americans — that Russia’s victory is inevitable and continued support for Ukraine is futile, making it more advantageous for the U.S. to prepare for normalization of relations with Russia.
