Photo: Getty Images
Russia is likely preparing several scenarios for potential aggression against NATO's eastern flank, including Finland, according to Ukrainian military analyst and Armed Forces serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko.
Speaking to Channel 24, Musiienko said Russia continues to expand its military infrastructure in Belarus despite its ongoing war against Ukraine, suggesting the Kremlin is preparing options for future confrontations with NATO.
"Russia is trying to strengthen its Baltic Fleet as much as possible. It has not abandoned various plans to test NATO's security at some point. I think there are at least five or six such plans," Musiienko said.
According to the analyst, one scenario could involve a large-scale conventional attack using missiles, drones, long-range artillery, and ground forces. Another possibility is a false-flag operation in which Russian troops disguise themselves as Polish, Lithuanian, or Estonian soldiers to stage provocations aimed at destabilizing the region.
Musiienko also suggested Russia could test NATO's air defenses by launching drones into allied territory, seeking to expose vulnerabilities and create divisions among alliance members over how to respond.
He argued that the Kremlin may hope to exploit delays or disagreements within NATO, particularly if frontline members such as Poland request a collective response. In his view, these scenarios could remain relevant through 2030, with China's future position likely to influence the broader geopolitical situation.
His comments come amid growing concern in Europe over the possibility of Russian provocations against NATO. Earlier this month, The Telegraph reported that U.S. officials had warned Russia could stage a limited military incident in Poland to test the alliance's resolve. The Washington Post has also reported that Moscow may be considering limited strikes or incursions against NATO members, including Poland and the Baltic states, in an effort to assess whether the United States would respond militarily.
