Photo: EPA
Russia is preparing a winter campaign aimed at severely disrupting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and cutting electricity, heating and water supplies to major cities, according to a Russian planning document obtained by Ukrainian authorities and reviewed by The New York Times. Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal previously said Ukrainian intelligence had obtained Russian documents detailing planned strikes against energy, heating, water and sanitation infrastructure.
According to The New York Times, the document outlines a campaign involving up to 1,000 missiles, drones and bombs targeting a broad range of facilities, including electricity substations, hydroelectric plants, thermal power plants and boiler stations.
The reported plan also includes strikes on equipment connecting three of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants — Rivne, South Ukraine and Khmelnytskyi — to the national grid. The reported objective would be to reduce their ability to supply electricity without directly striking the reactors themselves.
The document also identifies Ukraine’s water infrastructure as a potential target, including pumping stations and water-treatment facilities. Ukrainian officials have previously said Russia’s preparations include attacks on water and sewage systems as well as electricity and heat generation.
The New York Times reported that Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa are identified as major targets, with the plan calling for electricity and heating supplies in those cities to be cut by up to 90% and for major disruption to sewage systems.
The reported campaign consists of three stages. The first would target substations near Ukraine’s western borders that connect the country to the European power grid. The second would focus on hydroelectric facilities, while the third would target the grid connections of the three nuclear power plants. According to the report, the combined effect could remove almost 15 gigawatts of generating capacity from the Ukrainian system.
The disclosure comes after a major Russian attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on September 30. Reuters reported that the barrage damaged power facilities around Kyiv and other regions, caused emergency electricity restrictions and disrupted transport and water services.
Shmyhal said in September that Ukrainian authorities were preparing for the Russian plans and had already installed more than 200 concrete protective shelters over priority energy facilities, while also deploying anti-drone nets and other protective measures.
The New York Times report describes the proposed campaign as an attempt to undermine the infrastructure on which Ukraine’s cities depend during the winter. The existence and contents of the alleged Russian planning document are based on Ukrainian-provided material; they do not by themselves establish that every listed strike will be carried out.
