Photo: Ukraine’s 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade / Facebook
Ukraine would need to mobilize at least 250,000 additional soldiers and receive stronger weapons to change the situation on the battlefield, according to military intelligence and independent observers cited by The Times.
A senior NATO source told the newspaper that such reinforcements are necessary if Kyiv wants to turn the tide in the war with Russia.
Western officials also believe that Moscow can sustain the war for at least another year at the current pace. They note that Ukraine is outnumbered by Russian forces in both personnel and weaponry across most sections of the front line, including areas near Lyman and Siversk.
If Russian forces advance further toward Huliaipole, the city of Zaporizhzhia could fall within the range of FPV drones, the report says. This could expose it to dangers similar to those currently faced by Kherson.
A Ukrainian officer in Pokrovsk said Russia maintains a clear advantage in aviation and tactical ballistic missiles and continues to strike Ukrainian logistics and command centers using guided bombs.
Nick Reynolds, a land warfare research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said Russian forces are consistently penetrating parts of the front line, adding that the so-called “fortress belt” cities in Donbas are strategically important due to the region’s terrain.
According to a senior British defense official cited by the newspaper, Russia’s best-case scenario would involve another 18 months of war and about 500,000 additional casualties to seize the rest of Donbas. A worst-case scenario could mean four more years of fighting and nearly two million casualties.
Experts say Moscow appears willing to trade large numbers of infantry losses for continued advances, relying on its substantial reserves.
Former US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker also told the newspaper that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has shown no real interest in peace talks, adding that tightening economic pressure on Russia may be the only way to achieve a ceasefire.
