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European countries expect the war in Ukraine to end by 2030, a timeframe that would allow the continent to better prepare for potential future threats from Russia.
This was stated by Belgium’s Chief of Defence, Admiral Frédéric Vansina, in an interview with Le Soir.
“2030 will be a difficult period for Europe. By then, we hope the war in Ukraine will have ended. Russia will still have an army of around 650,000 to 700,000 experienced soldiers,” he said.
According to Vansina, Europe must significantly strengthen its defence capabilities in the coming years and reach a level of military readiness sufficient to send a clear deterrent message to Russia.
“So in 2030, we must be able to tell Vladimir Putin that even without the Americans, he cannot win a war against Europe. We still have a few years ahead of us. Thanks to the courage and blood of Ukrainians, who are buying us this time. That is why we support them so firmly,” he added.
Vansina noted that the war in Ukraine has effectively reached a stalemate, while Russia continues to maintain substantial military strength, with up to 700,000 experienced troops deployed on the front lines.
He also warned that Russia’s military economy continues to operate at scale, producing weapons daily, while its political narrative remains aggressive and expansionist.
The Belgian Chief of Defence pointed to Vladimir Putin’s plans to expand the Russian army to 1.5 million personnel and to rhetoric suggesting a return to the 1997 borders, which would imply pushing NATO out of Central Europe.
“Once this conflict in Ukraine ends, we will need to be strong enough in Europe to deter Russia. And all of this is happening against the backdrop of our current relations with the United States,” Vansina concluded.
At the same time, the article also notes broader concerns about NATO cohesion. Former U.S. President Donald Trump recently stated he is seriously considering a U.S. withdrawal from NATO, arguing that the alliance did not join American operations against Iran. He also said he never fully believed in NATO.
While most analysts consider a full U.S. exit from the alliance unlikely, even the rhetoric is already shifting internal NATO dynamics.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Europe has already begun quietly preparing contingency plans that would allow it to defend itself against Russia without U.S. troops or security guarantees.
