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Delays in signing a peace deal between the United States and Iran could trigger a sharp rise in energy prices and a global food shortage due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Bloomberg, Gulf and European leaders believe a peace agreement could take up to six months and are urging both sides to extend the ceasefire during this period. They stress the urgent need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route not only for oil but also for fertilizer exports essential to global agriculture. Without this, officials warn the world could face a major food crisis as early as next month.
Energy prices are already rising amid uncertainty. Brent crude has climbed over 4.5% to above $99 per barrel and has surged more than 35% since the conflict began in late February, increasing inflationary pressure worldwide.
Gulf states maintain that Iran still seeks nuclear weapons despite recent US and Israeli strikes. Their conditions for a future deal include a full ban on uranium enrichment, dismantling long-range missile programs, and limiting Iran-backed proxy groups. At the same time, most regional leaders oppose further escalation and call for a diplomatic solution. The United Arab Emirates, for instance, has demanded the unconditional reopening of the strait and a comprehensive approach to Iran’s military capabilities.
The war began in late February with large-scale US and Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by retaliatory attacks by Tehran targeting Israel as well as sites in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.
Negotiations remain complicated by several issues, including Iran’s desire to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz, disagreements over sanctions relief, and ongoing regional conflicts such as clashes in Lebanon involving Hezbollah. Recently, Donald Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon, which diplomats see as a potential step toward broader negotiations, though talks remain fragile.
