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Sweden warns that Russia could soon attempt to seize an island in the Baltic Sea to test how NATO would respond. This was stated by the head of the Swedish Armed Forces, Michael Claesson.
According to him, such an operation would likely be limited and fast rather than a full-scale invasion—for example, capturing a strategic island like Gotland via naval or airborne forces. The goal would not necessarily be to hold territory, but to probe the unity and reaction speed of the alliance.
Swedish intelligence believes Russia is already increasing its military presence in the region and has the capability to carry out such an operation. In the coming years, these capabilities could grow further. Even if the war in Ukraine ends, Stockholm warns that the threat to Europe may increase as Moscow reallocates resources westward.
In response, Sweden is strengthening its defense posture, particularly in the Baltic Sea, to deter such scenarios.
