Photo: Russian media
In May, Ukraine carried out at least 30 strikes on Russian oil facilities — the highest monthly total since the start of the full-scale war, according to Bloomberg. At least 16 of these attacks targeted oil refineries directly, with Ukrainian drones hitting 8 of Russia’s 10 largest refining plants.
Analysts say Ukraine has changed its approach, increasingly launching repeated strikes on the same facilities to maximize damage and slow down repair efforts. The focus has also shifted from primary refining units to more complex secondary processing systems, which are harder and more expensive to restore due to sanctions-related equipment shortages.
OilX estimates that Russia’s average refining output in May dropped to 4.58 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2009. In response, Russia has introduced export restrictions on fuels, including gasoline and aviation fuel, to protect domestic supply.
Despite Kremlin claims that there is no risk of shortages, market data shows shrinking gasoline availability and price increases of more than 20% year-on-year. Analysts warn that continued strikes could further strain Russia’s fuel system and deepen supply pressure.
