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Institute for the Study of War says the large-scale Russian strike on Ukraine’s capital was linked to criticism surrounding the May 9 Victory Day parade in Russia.
According to the report, the Kremlin had previously issued threats of strikes against “decision-making centers” in Kyiv, including references to the “Oreshnik” missile system, in the event of attacks on the Moscow parade. Ukraine did not carry out such attacks.
The ISW assessment suggests these threats were also used to project strength domestically and mask weaknesses in Russia’s air defense capabilities.
The report states that the strike on Kyiv appears to be part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s broader effort to counter what Moscow perceived as embarrassment or criticism related to the May 9 events.
ISW analysts also note that the attack violates the declared “spirit” of temporary ceasefire arrangements and reflects Moscow’s pattern of disregarding commitments when they are not strategically beneficial.
The report additionally cites Russian military bloggers who described the strikes as largely symbolic and militarily ineffective, arguing that Russia continues to face resource constraints and that frontline priorities are being misaligned.
ISW further assesses that Russia’s spring–summer 2026 offensive has made limited progress, and suggests the strike may also have been intended to project strength amid ongoing battlefield setbacks.
The massive attack on Kyiv on May 24 reportedly involved around 600 drones and 90 missiles, including “Oreshnik”-type ballistic systems, according to Ukrainian authorities. Air defense forces intercepted most of the incoming targets.
Officials reported casualties and widespread damage across Kyiv, including residential buildings, schools, and cultural institutions, as well as strikes in other regions such as Bila Tserkva in the Kyiv region.
