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Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War say Russia could potentially use Belarusian territory to launch drone strikes against Ukraine’s M-06 Kyiv–Chop highway and key supply routes coming from Poland.
According to the report, Moscow may use Belarusian claims about alleged Ukrainian drone activity in Belarusian airspace as justification for so-called “retaliatory strikes” launched from Belarus.
ISW notes that using Belarusian territory would allow Russia to conduct more effective and continuous drone attacks against Ukrainian ground lines of communication in western and northwestern Ukraine — areas that are currently harder to strike accurately from Russian territory alone.
Analysts believe this could allow Russian Shahed drones and cheaper Molniya drones to target:
- the M-06 Kyiv–Chop highway,
- logistics corridors linking Poland and Ukraine,
- and railway infrastructure used for military and supply deliveries.
Launching drones from Belarus would also improve Russia’s ability to use remotely controlled UAVs with greater precision against moving targets.
ISW added that recent statements from Belarusian officials and growing rhetoric around alleged Ukrainian drone incursions may indicate that Russia is creating informational conditions for broader military use of Belarusian territory, including strikes on strategically important infrastructure deep in western Ukraine.
Belarus recently claimed that Ukrainian combat drones had crossed its border “almost daily,” alleging 116 incidents in one week. Ukrainian officials rejected the accusations, calling them provocations aligned with Russian interests.
